قاعده واریان

قاعده واریان بیانگر اینست که" یک روش ساده برای پیش بینی آینده اینست که ببینیم اغنیا از چه چیزهایی برخوردارند؛مانند آن را اقشار با درآمد متوسط جامعه در ده سال آینده برخوردار خواهند بود و اقشار فقیر نیز در یک دهه ی بعدی به آن دست می یابند."^[۱] ^[۲] این قاعده منتسب به هال واریان اقتصاددان برجسته گوگل می باشد.^[۳] اولین بار اندرو مک‌آفی این موضوع را با عنوان " قاعده واریان" در فایننشال تایمز مطرح کرد.^[۴] تفسیر متفاوت دیگری که به عنوان جایگزین توسط Evgeny Morozov نویسنده گاردین مطرح شده است اینست که " کالاهای لوکس از قبل وجود داشته اند اما فقط به طور یکنواخت توزیع نشده اند.^[۵]

پانویس ویرایش

↑ Varian, Hal (2011-08-15). "Micromultinationals Will Run the World". Foreignpolicy.com. Retrieved April 15, 2015. Think of VCRs, flat-screen TVs, mobile phones, and the like. Today, rich people have chauffeurs. In 10 years or less, middle-income drivers will be able to afford robotic cars that drive themselves, at least in some circumstances.
↑ Krugman, Paul (2015-04-10). "Apple and the Self-Surveillance State". The New York Times. Retrieved April 14, 2015. Consider the Varian rule, which says that you can forecast the future by looking at what the rich have today — that is, that what affluent people will want in the future is, in general, something like what only the truly rich can afford right now.
↑ McAfee, Andrew (2015-04-07). "What do the rich have now that will soon spread?". Financial Times. Retrieved April 14, 2015. 'A simple way to forecast the future,' he [Varian] says, 'is to look at what rich people have today.'
↑ Reid, J. Francis (April 13, 2015). "Depressing corollary for the middle classes". Financial Times. Retrieved April 14, 2015. Sir, Andrew McAfee’s coining of the “Varian Rule” (April 8) — that the future can be forecast by the increasing affordability of what the rich have today — has a corollary worth considering. The future may also be forecast by increasing middle class exposure to what the poor experience today.
↑ "Facebook isn’t a charity. The poor will pay by surrendering their data". Retrieved 2015-11-04. Luxury is already here – it’s just not very evenly distributed. Such, at any rate, is the provocative argument put forward by Hal Varian, Google’s chief economist. Recently dubbed “the Varian rule”, it states that to predict the future, we just have to look at what rich people already have and assume that the middle classes will have it in five years and poor people will have it in 10.

[1] Varian, Hal (2011-08-15). "Micromultinationals Will Run the World". Foreignpolicy.com. Retrieved April 15, 2015. Think of VCRs, flat-screen TVs, mobile phones, and the like. Today, rich people have chauffeurs. In 10 years or less, middle-income drivers will be able to afford robotic cars that drive themselves, at least in some circumstances.

[2] Krugman, Paul (2015-04-10). "Apple and the Self-Surveillance State". The New York Times. Retrieved April 14, 2015. Consider the Varian rule, which says that you can forecast the future by looking at what the rich have today — that is, that what affluent people will want in the future is, in general, something like what only the truly rich can afford right now.

[3] McAfee, Andrew (2015-04-07). "What do the rich have now that will soon spread?". Financial Times. Retrieved April 14, 2015. 'A simple way to forecast the future,' he [Varian] says, 'is to look at what rich people have today.'

[4] Reid, J. Francis (April 13, 2015). "Depressing corollary for the middle classes". Financial Times. Retrieved April 14, 2015. Sir, Andrew McAfee’s coining of the “Varian Rule” (April 8) — that the future can be forecast by the increasing affordability of what the rich have today — has a corollary worth considering. The future may also be forecast by increasing middle class exposure to what the poor experience today.

[5] "Facebook isn’t a charity. The poor will pay by surrendering their data". Retrieved 2015-11-04. Luxury is already here – it’s just not very evenly distributed. Such, at any rate, is the provocative argument put forward by Hal Varian, Google’s chief economist. Recently dubbed “the Varian rule”, it states that to predict the future, we just have to look at what rich people already have and assume that the middle classes will have it in five years and poor people will have it in 10.

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